Let's see the "real fire" and "virtual fire" of the power battery industry
Let's see the "real fire" and "virtual fire" of the power battery industry
In 2023, the layout of power battery enterprises will continue to be carried out in all parts of the country with the implementation of such measures as increasing the price and renewing the contract.
On February 21, the Zhejiang Provincial Party Committee and the Zhejiang Provincial Government held the centralized commencement of major projects to expand effective investment in the province in the first quarter of 2023, among which the BYD new energy power battery project was listed. On February 27th, the power battery project of Ganfeng Lithium Battery East China Base was officially signed and settled in Suzhou Industrial Park, Suzhou and Xiangtan Cooperation Zone. These two cases are the epitome of the tide of capacity expansion in the power battery industry.
With the east wind of the development of the new energy automobile industry, the heat of the power battery as a supporting core component has always been increasing. Behind this heat wave, the power battery industry is facing a complex situation of both positive and negative.
Needs, expectations and confidence
In fact, from the past to the foreseeable future, the expansion pace of power battery enterprises has not stopped.
In 2023, companies such as Bike Battery, Funeng Technology, Yiwei Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium announced plans to expand the production of power and energy storage batteries, with an investment of 10 billion yuan. For example, on January 19, Ganfeng Lithium announced that it planned to invest in the construction of a new lithium battery and energy storage headquarters project with an annual output of 10GWh in Dongguan, with a total investment of 5 billion yuan. At the same time, Ganfeng Lithium Battery, a subsidiary, plans to invest in the construction of a power battery project with an annual output of 24GWh in Fuling High-tech Zone, Chongqing, with a total investment of 10 billion yuan.
The determination of power battery enterprises to "do a big job" is behind the finalization of the ten-billion-yuan project. The factors that make enterprises make up their minds also include the support of local governments for industrial development. This is particularly evident in local governments that have formed regional advantages. The staff of the Shenzhen Battery Industry Association told the reporter that the power battery and the energy storage track are very popular at the beginning of this year. The Shenzhen Policy Research Office has carried out research on the power battery industry for many times.
It is reported that GAC plans to set up a 30 billion yuan new energy vehicle industry development fund for Guangzhou Intelligent Internet Connection, which is funded by the 200 billion yuan Guangzhou Industrial Investment Master Fund and Guangzhou Innovation Investment Master Fund. The fund is managed by GAC Capital. The key investment in the energy ecology will focus on the key enterprises in the vertical integrated new energy industry chain of GAC Group "lithium ore+basic lithium battery raw material production+energy storage and power battery production+charging and replacement+energy storage".
In order to enable the financial industry to better support the development of the new energy vehicle industry, Shenzhen has issued 12 measures, involving supporting power battery enterprises to expand their advantages and complement their weaknesses. In February this year, China Innovation Airlines signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement with the Futian District People's Government of Shenzhen. China Innovation Airlines will combine the advantages of Futian District, give full play to its advantages in the application and research and development of new energy in the full range of scenarios, and vigorously carry out the research and transformation of key technologies in the frontier field of new energy, the construction of talent teams, and the establishment of industry standards.
In the list of 2023 key projects published in Sichuan, Zhejiang and other places, there are also power battery enterprises. According to the list of provincial key projects in 2023 released by the Sichuan Provincial Development and Reform Commission, the newly started projects cover the power battery industry related projects such as the Sino-innovation Aviation Power Battery and Energy Storage System Project.
The determination of battery enterprises and the attention of local governments ultimately lie in their confidence in the market. In 2022, China's production and sales of new energy vehicles will reach 7.058 million and 6.887 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 96.9% and 93.4%. Based on the market performance in 2022, the whole industry has high expectations for the development of new energy vehicles in 2023. The China Automobile Industry Association predicts that the sales of new energy vehicles in China will reach 9 million in 2023, up 35% year on year.
Cao Guangping, an independent researcher of new energy and intelligent connected vehicles, told reporters that the heat of the power battery industry is difficult to fade. On the one hand, due to the global pursuit of energy security and vehicle electrification, the power battery industry chain can not form a positive closed loop temporarily, and the market expectation is growing again; On the other hand, the supply and demand of power batteries and the energy storage batteries in the energy transformation have a large intersection.
Games, Problems and Concerns
Half sea water, half fire.
The other side of demand-driven, high expectations and policy boost is the various problems that the power battery industry needs to face from "zero" - from raw materials to the industrial chain, from the market to technology, some have been exposed, some have not yet emerged.
At this stage, the biggest problem in the power battery industry chain is the rising cost caused by the rising price of raw materials. It is worth noting that the price of lithium carbonate began to return to rationality this year after two years of continuous increase. This still leads to the game of all forces in the industrial chain, including power battery suppliers, material enterprises, automobile enterprises, and this game will continue. In addition, from a global perspective, resource game and geopolitical conflict also bring uncertainty to the supply of power battery raw materials.
The complexity and variability of the power battery industry stems from the technological drive behind the market. In the new energy vehicle industry, power battery and automatic driving are the core areas of technological innovation. Among them, the landing of power battery technology innovation is faster. This also means that the industry will continue to change. The "dispute" between Ningde Times and the second-tier power battery enterprises is evidence. On February 21, the judgment of the first instance of the intellectual property infringement dispute between Ningde Times and China Innovation Airlines was announced, and the latter was sentenced to stop the infringement and compensate the plaintiff for the economic loss of 35.8 million yuan. China Innovation Airlines said it would continue to appeal to the Supreme Court.
In addition to the market and technology, lithium resources in the upstream of the power battery industry also exposed problems. Previously, the chaos of Yichun Lithium Mine in Jiangxi Province caused hot discussion in the industry. It is reported that in some villages in Yichun City, Jiangxi Province, men, women, old and young came to abandoned mining areas, mountains and forests, and dug stones day and night. Some villagers are not old enough. Some neighbors came to pay New Year's greetings on the first day of the year, but they didn't see anyone. The villagers here are scrambling to dig lithium mica ore.
In the long run, the industry is worried about overcapacity. In November last year, Wang Zidong, deputy secretary-general of the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, pointed out at an industry conference: "In 2023, the growth rate of new energy vehicles in China's local market is likely to decline, and with the release of new capacity of power battery enterprises, battery supply will certainly be surplus." Recently, Ouyang Minggao, an academician of the CAS Member, once again mentioned: "Investment in power batteries needs to be cautious, and there may be excess in the future."
A person in charge of an automobile enterprise told the reporter that the production and sales of new energy vehicles had been soaring all the way before, and 2023 might usher in a repair period. Cao Guangping said: "In the future, the development of the power battery industry and the development of the oil and gas industry have similarities and differences. The main difference is that the battery material is not energy but resources, which can be recycled, and the power battery industry will eventually form a cycle." With the coming of the power battery retirement tide, recycling is becoming an issue that the industry needs to face in the future.
Foam, Growth and Competition
From the perspective of the global market, the power battery industry is on the rise both at home and abroad. It is undeniable that some of the current problems can be adjusted by market forces, while others need the intervention of relevant national departments.
Relevant institutions predict that by 2025, the power battery capacity required by China's new energy vehicle market will be about 1000~1200 GWh. At present, the capacity planning of battery suppliers, automobile enterprises and other cross-border enterprises has reached 4800 GWh, four times the former. However, it should be pointed out that the capacity of China's power battery enterprises is not only for the domestic market, but also for the rapidly growing overseas market.
Wu Hui, general manager of the research department of Ivy Economic Research Institute and president of the China Battery Industry Research Institute, told reporters that the entire industry has basically expected the sales of new energy vehicles in 2023, including the demand for batteries, lithium carbonate, etc. In other words, the rapid growth of the power battery industry is not blind, but within a controllable range.
In fact, after more than ten years of development, the "foam" of the power battery industry is gradually being squeezed out. In essence, this is a market that needs technological innovation to stand firm. According to the industry research report, with the gradual maturity of battery industrialization and the further improvement of electric vehicle penetration, the future competition of battery enterprises may change from the competition at the manufacturing process end and cost end to the comprehensive competition in an all-round way. The battery enterprises will gradually improve the layout of the mining - beneficiation - smelting industrial chain, and ensure the supply of raw materials through supply guarantee, exclusive sales agreement and strategic cooperation, which will help to prevent supply chain risks Reduce the cost pressure of raw materials.
The development environment of the whole industry is also different from the past. Previously, an article was published on the WeChat official account of "Luoyang Political Research and Reform" and asked sharply: Why did AVIC Lithium Battery, once the largest installed capacity in the commercial vehicle market, start in Luoyang and grow in Changzhou? From the perspective of the local government, there are many experiences and lessons in the process of grasping the "tuyere" industry. Only when the division of labor between local governments and market entities is clear, and the "visible hand" and "invisible hand" work in the same direction, can the power battery industry be truly promoted to high-quality development.
In 2023, the layout of power battery enterprises will continue to be carried out in all parts of the country with the implementation of such measures as increasing the price and renewing the contract.
On February 21, the Zhejiang Provincial Party Committee and the Zhejiang Provincial Government held the centralized commencement of major projects to expand effective investment in the province in the first quarter of 2023, among which the BYD new energy power battery project was listed. On February 27th, the power battery project of Ganfeng Lithium Battery East China Base was officially signed and settled in Suzhou Industrial Park, Suzhou and Xiangtan Cooperation Zone. These two cases are the epitome of the tide of capacity expansion in the power battery industry.
With the east wind of the development of the new energy automobile industry, the heat of the power battery as a supporting core component has always been increasing. Behind this heat wave, the power battery industry is facing a complex situation of both positive and negative.
Needs, expectations and confidence
In fact, from the past to the foreseeable future, the expansion pace of power battery enterprises has not stopped.
In 2023, companies such as Bike Battery, Funeng Technology, Yiwei Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium announced plans to expand the production of power and energy storage batteries, with an investment of 10 billion yuan. For example, on January 19, Ganfeng Lithium announced that it planned to invest in the construction of a new lithium battery and energy storage headquarters project with an annual output of 10GWh in Dongguan, with a total investment of 5 billion yuan. At the same time, Ganfeng Lithium Battery, a subsidiary, plans to invest in the construction of a power battery project with an annual output of 24GWh in Fuling High-tech Zone, Chongqing, with a total investment of 10 billion yuan.
The determination of power battery enterprises to "do a big job" is behind the finalization of the ten-billion-yuan project. The factors that make enterprises make up their minds also include the support of local governments for industrial development. This is particularly evident in local governments that have formed regional advantages. The staff of the Shenzhen Battery Industry Association told the reporter that the power battery and the energy storage track are very popular at the beginning of this year. The Shenzhen Policy Research Office has carried out research on the power battery industry for many times.
It is reported that GAC plans to set up a 30 billion yuan new energy vehicle industry development fund for Guangzhou Intelligent Internet Connection, which is funded by the 200 billion yuan Guangzhou Industrial Investment Master Fund and Guangzhou Innovation Investment Master Fund. The fund is managed by GAC Capital. The key investment in the energy ecology will focus on the key enterprises in the vertical integrated new energy industry chain of GAC Group "lithium ore+basic lithium battery raw material production+energy storage and power battery production+charging and replacement+energy storage".
In order to enable the financial industry to better support the development of the new energy vehicle industry, Shenzhen has issued 12 measures, involving supporting power battery enterprises to expand their advantages and complement their weaknesses. In February this year, China Innovation Airlines signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement with the Futian District People's Government of Shenzhen. China Innovation Airlines will combine the advantages of Futian District, give full play to its advantages in the application and research and development of new energy in the full range of scenarios, and vigorously carry out the research and transformation of key technologies in the frontier field of new energy, the construction of talent teams, and the establishment of industry standards.
In the list of 2023 key projects published in Sichuan, Zhejiang and other places, there are also power battery enterprises. According to the list of provincial key projects in 2023 released by the Sichuan Provincial Development and Reform Commission, the newly started projects cover the power battery industry related projects such as the Sino-innovation Aviation Power Battery and Energy Storage System Project.
The determination of battery enterprises and the attention of local governments ultimately lie in their confidence in the market. In 2022, China's production and sales of new energy vehicles will reach 7.058 million and 6.887 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 96.9% and 93.4%. Based on the market performance in 2022, the whole industry has high expectations for the development of new energy vehicles in 2023. The China Automobile Industry Association predicts that the sales of new energy vehicles in China will reach 9 million in 2023, up 35% year on year.
Cao Guangping, an independent researcher of new energy and intelligent connected vehicles, told reporters that the heat of the power battery industry is difficult to fade. On the one hand, due to the global pursuit of energy security and vehicle electrification, the power battery industry chain can not form a positive closed loop temporarily, and the market expectation is growing again; On the other hand, the supply and demand of power batteries and the energy storage batteries in the energy transformation have a large intersection.
Games, Problems and Concerns
Half sea water, half fire.
The other side of demand-driven, high expectations and policy boost is the various problems that the power battery industry needs to face from "zero" - from raw materials to the industrial chain, from the market to technology, some have been exposed, some have not yet emerged.
At this stage, the biggest problem in the power battery industry chain is the rising cost caused by the rising price of raw materials. It is worth noting that the price of lithium carbonate began to return to rationality this year after two years of continuous increase. This still leads to the game of all forces in the industrial chain, including power battery suppliers, material enterprises, automobile enterprises, and this game will continue. In addition, from a global perspective, resource game and geopolitical conflict also bring uncertainty to the supply of power battery raw materials.
The complexity and variability of the power battery industry stems from the technological drive behind the market. In the new energy vehicle industry, power battery and automatic driving are the core areas of technological innovation. Among them, the landing of power battery technology innovation is faster. This also means that the industry will continue to change. The "dispute" between Ningde Times and the second-tier power battery enterprises is evidence. On February 21, the judgment of the first instance of the intellectual property infringement dispute between Ningde Times and China Innovation Airlines was announced, and the latter was sentenced to stop the infringement and compensate the plaintiff for the economic loss of 35.8 million yuan. China Innovation Airlines said it would continue to appeal to the Supreme Court.
In addition to the market and technology, lithium resources in the upstream of the power battery industry also exposed problems. Previously, the chaos of Yichun Lithium Mine in Jiangxi Province caused hot discussion in the industry. It is reported that in some villages in Yichun City, Jiangxi Province, men, women, old and young came to abandoned mining areas, mountains and forests, and dug stones day and night. Some villagers are not old enough. Some neighbors came to pay New Year's greetings on the first day of the year, but they didn't see anyone. The villagers here are scrambling to dig lithium mica ore.
In the long run, the industry is worried about overcapacity. In November last year, Wang Zidong, deputy secretary-general of the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, pointed out at an industry conference: "In 2023, the growth rate of new energy vehicles in China's local market is likely to decline, and with the release of new capacity of power battery enterprises, battery supply will certainly be surplus." Recently, Ouyang Minggao, an academician of the CAS Member, once again mentioned: "Investment in power batteries needs to be cautious, and there may be excess in the future."
A person in charge of an automobile enterprise told the reporter that the production and sales of new energy vehicles had been soaring all the way before, and 2023 might usher in a repair period. Cao Guangping said: "In the future, the development of the power battery industry and the development of the oil and gas industry have similarities and differences. The main difference is that the battery material is not energy but resources, which can be recycled, and the power battery industry will eventually form a cycle." With the coming of the power battery retirement tide, recycling is becoming an issue that the industry needs to face in the future.
Foam, Growth and Competition
From the perspective of the global market, the power battery industry is on the rise both at home and abroad. It is undeniable that some of the current problems can be adjusted by market forces, while others need the intervention of relevant national departments.
Relevant institutions predict that by 2025, the power battery capacity required by China's new energy vehicle market will be about 1000~1200 GWh. At present, the capacity planning of battery suppliers, automobile enterprises and other cross-border enterprises has reached 4800 GWh, four times the former. However, it should be pointed out that the capacity of China's power battery enterprises is not only for the domestic market, but also for the rapidly growing overseas market.
Wu Hui, general manager of the research department of Ivy Economic Research Institute and president of the China Battery Industry Research Institute, told reporters that the entire industry has basically expected the sales of new energy vehicles in 2023, including the demand for batteries, lithium carbonate, etc. In other words, the rapid growth of the power battery industry is not blind, but within a controllable range.
In fact, after more than ten years of development, the "foam" of the power battery industry is gradually being squeezed out. In essence, this is a market that needs technological innovation to stand firm. According to the industry research report, with the gradual maturity of battery industrialization and the further improvement of electric vehicle penetration, the future competition of battery enterprises may change from the competition at the manufacturing process end and cost end to the comprehensive competition in an all-round way. The battery enterprises will gradually improve the layout of the mining - beneficiation - smelting industrial chain, and ensure the supply of raw materials through supply guarantee, exclusive sales agreement and strategic cooperation, which will help to prevent supply chain risks Reduce the cost pressure of raw materials.
The development environment of the whole industry is also different from the past. Previously, an article was published on the WeChat official account of "Luoyang Political Research and Reform" and asked sharply: Why did AVIC Lithium Battery, once the largest installed capacity in the commercial vehicle market, start in Luoyang and grow in Changzhou? From the perspective of the local government, there are many experiences and lessons in the process of grasping the "tuyere" industry. Only when the division of labor between local governments and market entities is clear, and the "visible hand" and "invisible hand" work in the same direction, can the power battery industry be truly promoted to high-quality development.